By Russia’s economy ministry has revised up its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas, key sources of budget revenues, by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion owing to a more positive price outlook, Reuters reported basis a document it has accessed.
The improved expectations for Russia’s oil and gas business underscore how the West has struggled to inflict lasting damage on Russia’s economy through unprecedented sanctions, including oil price caps and import restrictions, over Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
Russian crude oil exports are expected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons in 2024, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023, the document showed.
The ministry also raised its estimate for the average price of Russian oil sold for export to $70 per barrel, up from $64.5 in 2023 and exceeding the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Western countries.
Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Far East, President Vladimir Putin emphasized, “The global economy would fail without Russia’s oil and gas.”
His comments come as Russia continues to shift its energy trade focus towards China and India, reducing reliance on European markets.
Revenue boost despite sanctions
Russia’s ability to adjust its energy trade strategy has led to significant revenue increases.
The revised export forecast of nearly $240 billion for 2024 represents a $13 billion increase compared to 2023.
Additionally, the 2025 forecast has been raised to $236.5 billion, further solidifying Russia’s economic resilience.
However, despite the revenue boost, the ministry lowered its expectations for oil production.
Russian oil output is projected to decline to 521.3 million tons this year, down from 529.6 million tons in 2023, with further reductions expected in 2025.
Russia’s role in global energy markets
As Russia continues to participate in OPEC-led efforts to stabilize the oil market, the nation’s energy exports remain crucial to the global economy.
“Russia cannot force Kyiv to keep the gas transit agreement,” Putin said, referring to the expiring deal with Ukraine that allows gas to flow to the European Union.
Despite production declines, Russia’s influence in global energy markets is expected to persist, with gas output projected to increase annually until 2030.
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