By August’s latest US jobs report has strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates.
While hiring showed signs of recovery, it fell short of economists’ expectations, adding only 142,000 jobs compared to the forecasted 165,000.
The unemployment rate ticked slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, but overall, the labour market appears to be losing momentum.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz and Chair of Gramercy Fund Management, commented,
The report indicates a labor market that, although weakening over time, remains robust enough to avoid a sudden economic downturn. This is why the Fed is likely to implement a 25 basis point cut rather than a 50 basis point reduction.
Despite this, top Federal Reserve officials have indicated they are open to larger rate cuts in the coming months, though they emphasize a cautious approach for the next meeting.
This potential shift in monetary policy could have significant implications for global markets, particularly in India, where investors are closely watching for signs of change.
Fed rate cut impact on Indian markets
A Federal Reserve rate cut could have substantial effects on the Indian markets.
Experts suggest that such a move will likely influence India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to follow suit, potentially benefiting sectors such as banking and real estate.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted,
The dovish signal from the Fed and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle will likely lead to rate cuts by the MPC in India. With CPI inflation at a manageable 3.54% in July, the stage is set for possible rate reductions.
Vijayakumar added that rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would enhance the valuations of bond investments for banks, making the sector more attractive.
He also highlighted that other rate-sensitive sectors would respond positively to such cuts.
With fiscal consolidation progressing and minimal inflationary pressures from fiscal laxity, there is additional room for the MPC to maneuver.
Analysts’ mixed views on rate cuts
Some analysts believe that a September rate cut by the Fed may already be factored into the markets.
G. Chokkalingam, Founder and Head of Research at Equinomics Research Private Ltd, stated,
The September rate cut is already priced in. When quantitative easing was withdrawn, the market rose due to expectations of a rate decline.
Chokkalingam added that the market’s recent gains were driven by expectations that rates would peak and then decrease.
He posited that the market might continue to rise for reasons beyond the rate cuts themselves.
Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, warned that a significant rate cut could lead to volatility.
“A 50 basis point cut might trigger an initial rally in Indian equities, but deeper cuts could signal concerns about US economic growth, potentially leading to market fluctuations,” he said.
Investor caution amid optimism
In India, market sentiment remains largely positive, buoyed by hopes that the US will achieve a “soft landing” and avoid a recession.
This optimism, combined with anticipated rate cuts, has kept bearish sentiment at bay.
However, Equitymaster cautions that high valuations in the Indian stock market could pose risks.
The Nifty PE ratio is nearing overvaluation territory, and the Smallcap to Sensex ratio is above 0.65, indicating potential overvaluation.
“The overall valuation of the Indian stock market is high, which increases the risk for investors,” warned Equitymaster.
While a Fed rate cut may provide a short-term boost, particularly to rate-sensitive sectors and growth stocks, long-term gains could be tempered by high valuations, retail investor sentiment, and potential market volatility from deeper Fed cuts.
Investors should approach the situation with caution, monitoring both global and domestic developments.
The trajectory of the Indian market will depend on how these factors unfold in the coming months.
While an initial positive impact from a Fed rate cut is possible, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially if signs of further US economic weakness emerge.
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