By For eighty years, Europe has relied on the United States as its ultimate security guarantor. That era is over.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear: American troops will not stay in Europe forever.
Donald Trump’s administration is negotiating directly with Russia, side-lining Ukraine and European allies.
NATO’s foundations are weakening, and Washington is now focusing on China.
Europe is now left with only two options.
Either it wakes up and takes responsibility for its defence, or it risks being caught unprepared in a new era of global power shifts.
Can Europe survive without the US?
For decades, European leaders have assumed that US military power would always shield them.
That assumption is now proving false.
Trump’s administration is openly questioning NATO’s role, indicating that America’s primary interest lies in the Indo-Pacific, not Europe.
Following Trump’s pivot towards Russia, Washington has made it clear that European nations must provide most of the military support for Ukraine going forward.
US aid to Kyiv is now uncertain and the country’s leaders know they hold the upper hand in negotiations.
If Europe does not step in, Ukraine may collapse, and Russia’s appetite for expansion will only grow.
The United States has also stated that NATO’s Article 5 protections, which is the core of collective defence, may not apply if European countries send forces into Ukraine post-war.
This is not just about Trump. The US faces a rising China with four times its population and superior manufacturing capacity.
Washington cannot afford to focus on both Europe and the Pacific.
Future American presidents, regardless of party, will probably support the same notion that Europe is no longer the priority.
Russia is not as weak as Europe hopes
Three years into the Ukraine war, Russia has taken heavy losses, but it has adapted.
Its economy is growing, fuelled by trade with China, India, and other non-Western partners.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Russia’s economy outpaced the growth of G7 nations in 2023 and 2024.
Sanctions have not crippled the Kremlin; Moscow has found ways around them.
More concerning is Russia’s ability to sustain the war.
It has annexed five Ukrainian regions and is solidifying control.
It continues to produce vast quantities of weapons, leveraging cheaper domestic costs and wartime economies of scale.
If Ukraine falls, Russia will not stop.
It will push further into Eastern Europe, testing NATO’s limits.
Europe cannot afford to wait and see what happens next.
Europe’s military is not ready for a post-US world
Europe has the resources to defend itself but lacks the preparation.
The European Union and the UK have a combined population of over 500 million, more than three times Russia’s.
Their economies, when combined, dwarf Russia’s by a factor of more than ten.
Yet, their militaries remain fragmented, underfunded, and poorly coordinated.
Despite having over two million personnel in uniform, most European forces are not combat-ready.
Defence spending has been low for decades, relying on the American security umbrella.
While some countries, like Poland, have stepped up by committing 5% of GDP to defence, major economies like Germany and France are still lagging.
Europe’s total military budget of $338 billion may sound large, but when adjusted for purchasing power, it is roughly on par with Russia’s. Worse, Europe’s spending is inefficient.
Unlike Russia, which mass-produces cheap, effective military hardware, Europe’s defence industry is scattered across multiple nations, each with its own procurement policies and bureaucratic inefficiencies.
If Europe wants to deter Russia, it must fix these problems now.
This means higher military spending, building a unified command structure, and ensuring that European forces can fight together effectively.
Economic weakness fuels military vulnerability
Europe’s declining economic power is another major concern.
The continent’s GDP per capita has stagnated while the US has surged ahead.
Germany’s industrial production has been in decline since before the Ukraine war.
Energy dependence remains a strategic vulnerability. In 2024, the EU spent €22 billion on Russian oil and gas, that is more than its financial aid to Ukraine.
If Europe wants to sustain military power, it needs economic reform focusing on three key areas.
First of all, internal trade barriers within the EU must be eliminated, allowing goods, services, and capital to flow freely and create a truly unified market that supports industrial and technological expansion.
The technology sector, particularly AI and defence tech, must be deregulated and expanded, enabling European firms to compete globally without being strangled by excessive bureaucracy.
Most importantly, Europe must end its dependence on external energy sources by investing heavily in nuclear power, renewables, and battery storage, ensuring long-term energy security and reducing the leverage that foreign powers, particularly Russia, hold over the continent.
A European army is now a necessity
The idea of a common European military has been debated for decades but never taken seriously.
Now, it must become a reality. If NATO weakens, Europe needs its military framework.
A European army would not replace national forces but would provide a unified rapid-response capability, ensuring Europe can act independently if needed.
To make this happen, Europe must start by unifying defence procurement.
Instead of buying weapons from the US, it must rebuild its military-industrial base.
Standardizing equipment, training, and logistics across member states will allow European forces to function as a single entity.
A standing EU rapid-reaction force should be created, modelled on NATO’s existing structures.
A common European nuclear deterrent is also necessary.
France and the UK must expand their arsenals, while Germany and Poland should develop their nuclear capabilities.
Without American protection, Europe must ensure it has the ultimate deterrent against Russian aggression.
Europe is no longer a passive observer in global affairs.
The United States is stepping back, Russia is pushing forward, and the world is becoming more unstable.
If European leaders fail to act, they risk watching history repeat itself: a divided, weak continent, vulnerable to external forces.
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